By Joanne S. Gowa
There's a common trust, between either political scientists and executive policymakers, that "democracies do not struggle every one other." right here Joanne Gowa demanding situations that trust. In an intensive, systematic critique, she exhibits that, whereas democracies have been much less most probably than different states to have interaction one another in armed conflicts among 1945 and 1980, they have been simply as prone to achieve this as have been different states prior to 1914. hence, no cause exists to think democratic peace will continue to exist the top of the chilly warfare. considering that U.S. international coverage is at the moment directed towards selling democracy in a foreign country, Gowa's findings are specially well timed and worrisome.
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Extra resources for Ballots and Bullets
Political structure (Poole and Rosenthal 1991, 229). S. gross national product, which I use to construct a control variable, are available only as of 1869 (Balke and Gordon 1989; Romer 1989). ﬁnally, that laurels are to be gathered; and it is the executive brow they are to encircle (cited in Fisher 1995, 21). 3 For a discussion of other unusual attributes of the post–World War II period directly related to the issue of domestic incentives to use military force, see Marra, Ostrom, and Simon (1990, 592, 620).
It is, however, consistent with the checks-and-balance interpretation. , Lucas 1972; Sargent and Wallace 1975). That is, explicit attention to the logic of rational expectations makes clear that any effort to use military power abroad to wage political battles at home will be futile: nonmyopic voters will discount the use of force as elections approach; as a result, nonmyopic leaders will not attempt to use this instrument to inﬂuence votes. The analyses in this chapter also show that recourse to force does not vary consistently with the partisan composition of government.
Thus, it seems that elections can as easily encourage as restrain would-be renegade leaders. , Callahan and Virtanen 1993; Gaubatz 1991; Hess and Orphanides 1995; James and Oneal 1991; Levy 1988; MacKuen 1983; Marra, Ostrom, and Simon 1990; Morgan and Bickers 1992; Mueller 1970; 1973; 1994; Oneal, Lian, and Joyner 1996; Ostrom, Simon, and Job 1986; Stoll 1984). Because a rally event—that is, a “speciﬁc, dramatic, and sharply focused” international event (Mueller 1973, 209)—creates a short-run surge of public opinion in favor of the incumbent,34 it seems to create opportunities for incumbents to use force abroad as an instrument of political campaigns at home (Ostrom and Simon 1985).
Ballots and Bullets by Joanne S. Gowa